UNAIR Epidemiology expert: 28-day-extension of PSBB Surabaya is reasonable

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Large Scale Social Distancing Surabaya. (Source: Jawa Pos)

UNAIR NEWS – Large Scale Social Distancing (PSBB) in Surabaya City, Sidoarjo Regency, and Gresik Regency have been officially extended to be 28 days. As duration of 14 days seems less ideal to suppress the Covid-19 case number.

Universitas Airlangga (UNAIR) epidemiologist, Dr. Windhu Purnomo, dr., MS. said that it was ideal to add 14 days more for PSBB because according to him, the transmission and incubation period for corona virus patients or Covid-19 tends to vary. Starting from 14 to 25 days.

“Based on the experience of several countries written some international journals, actual transmission does not only occur during the incubation period, but also after symptoms appear,” explained Windhu, Saturday, May 9, 2020.

The epidemiological pattern of Covid-19 from the natural course of the disease and the infected patient showed that the more severe the symptoms, the longer the transmission period and even longer from the incubation period.

Windhu explained, 30 percent of people without symptoms (OTG) have a transmission period of up to 14 days. Whereas in patients with mild symptoms, about 55 percent of them have a transmission period of up to 21 days. Then as many as 15 percent of coronavirus confirmed cases with severe and critical symptoms have a 25-day transmission period.

Windhu continued, the so-called confirmed positive patients, not only were confirmed by PCR tests, but also who have not been detected and spread the disease in the community.

“So if PSBB is only done 14 days and then stopped, then what happens to 55 percent of patients with mild symptoms who can still transmit the disease. It must be rounded up at least until 28th day so the next wave of transmission does not appear, “explained the lecturer of UNAIR Faculty of Public Health (FKM).

If it is not extended, Windhu is worried that a new wave of infection will emerge. He said, the first 14 days were only for evaluation or milestone.

According to Windhu, if the curve of new cases confirmed and cases of death is still high, then the PSBB extension must be done. Furthermore, after the 28th day when the daily case and mortality curve decreases, the PSBB can be revoked.

“It does not mean when the curve is stable or tends to decrease before the 28th day, we can stop the PSBB. It is false sign because transmission is still ongoing in the community, “he said.

Universitas Airlangga (UNAIR) Epidemiologist, Dr. Windhu Purnomo, dr., MS. (Personal Doc.)

Regarding the extension of PSBB, Windhu urged the entire community to be disciplined and obey PSBB regulations. Do not leave the house if there is no urgent need, keep a safe distance, wear masks and other health protocols. “The extension of PSBB can be effective if the community is united,” he hoped.

Meanwhile, on Saturday night, May 9, 2020, the East Java Provincial Government together with the three regional leaders ensured that the PSBB in Surabaya City, Gresik Regency and Sidoarjo Regency were extended. The provincial government also agreed to submit Greater Malang PSBB proposal to Ministry of Health on Sunday morning, May 10, 2020 at the latest. (*)

Author: Erika Eight Novanty

Editor : Binti Quryatul Masruroh

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