UNAIR NEWS – – The potential of halal tourism development in Indonesia is likely to play a role in boosting the country’s economy. The number of international tourists visiting Indonesia halal tourism is predicted to increase although the increase does not happen every year.
M. Fariz Fadillah Mardianto, S.Si, M.Si has predicted the positive trend based on his study through statistical data reading and journal publication entitled “Prediction of the Number of InternationalTourist Arrival in Indonesia Halal Tourism Entrance using Simultaneously Fourier Series Estimator”.
“Based on the prediction results using the Fourier series estimator, the number of international tourists in Indonesia is predicted to increase,” he said.
The prediction, said Fariz, was from nonparametric regression analysis. Considering, the pattern of data on the number of international tourist arrivals to Indonesia fluctuating does not form a specific pattern.
“So it can be analyzed with nonparametric regression,” he said.
Fariz explained that the Fourier Series is a nonparametric regression model used in estimating a trigonometric data pattern. Fourier series are trigonometric polynomial functions with a high degree of flexibility.
“To limit the research, the prediction of the number of international tourist arrivals to Indonesia is only based on a few entrances,” he said.
The entrance or airport, said Fariz, was chosen based on the spread of halal tourist destinations in Indonesia, in several regions, such as Kualanamu Airport as a representation of halal tourism in Aceh as Veranda of Mecca; Minangkabau Airport (West Sumatra and South Sumatra); Soekarno Hatta (West Java and Banten); Adi Sutjipto (Yogyakarta and Central Java); Juanda (East Java); and Lombok Praya International Airport (West Nusa Tenggara).
“As a result, the number of international tourists is predicted to increase,” he said.
Fariz said, reading the trend on the number of arriving international tourists is very important for the development of halal tourism in Indonesia. It can be a material for determining policies and preparing locals to welcome tourists.
“This number (international tourists, ed) is one of the important factors causing growth in tourism sector. Although, there are a number of other factors affecting, for example natural disasters and infrastructure damage, “he said.
Based on reports from the World Economic Forum (WEF), Indonesia’s Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Index (TTCI) rose from rank 70 (in 2013) to rank 50 (in 2015). And, Indonesia shot to rank 42 (in 2017). Indonesia’s tourism growth reached 25.68 percent, while in Southeast Asia 7 percent.
“Data from the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) revealed tourism sector which includes travel and tourists in Indonesia could generate 2.4 million new jobs. Furthermore, international tourist spending contributed Rp 220 trillion to the economy. This sector also accounts for more than 55 percent of exports in services, “he explained.
“The tourism sector is inseparable from the increasing number of tourist arrivals, both domestic and foreign,” he added.
Fariz said that the developmental trend of halal tourism in Indonesia was caused by several things. First, the number of Muslim consumers continues to rise because the number of Muslims in the world also continues to rise.
Second is the awareness factor among Muslims that they need tourist destinations that are permitted by Islamic Sharia, tourism in accordance with Islamic principles, especially those who are able to accommodate everything permitted, avoided, and prohibited in Islamic Sharia.
And, third, there was an awareness from several regions to declare themselves to be the center of Indonesian halal tourism. For example, the latest one is West Nusa Tenggara, West Sumatra, and Nangroe Aceh Darusalam.
“Previously, Central Java, East Java, West Java, and Banten had developed Islamic tourism areas,” he said.
With these predictions, said Fariz, the government is expected to be able to determine the target of foreign exchange in tourism sector. Moreover, the government can improve infrastructure and promotion facilities, especially related to halal tourism. (*)
Author: Feri Fenoria
Editor: Khefti Al Mawalia
M. Fariz Fadillah Mardianto, Eko Fajar Cahyono, Lailatus Syarifah, dan Putri Andriani. 2019. Prediction of the Number of Foreign Tourist Arrival in Indonesia Halal Tourism Entrance using Simultaneously Fourier series Estimator publish di KnE Social Sciences, Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Islamic Economics, Business, and Philanthropy (2nd ICIEBP), pp 1093-1104.