Confirmed case rising, is Indonesia experiencing a pandemic peak?

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UNAIR NEWS – Facing the end of 2020, the popularity and quantity of Covid-19 pandemic news is decreasing on national news channels and social media. In fact, in the end of November, Indonesia experienced a significant increase in the number of confirmed daily cases. Until now, the highest record was recorded on Sunday, November 29, 2020, with 6,267 new confirmed cases.

This data then raises a question, is Indonesia currently experiencing the peak of Covid-19 pandemic? When the people will soon face a schedule of year-end holidays, collective leave, and simultaneous regional elections that have the potential to generate crowds and spread the virus.

According to Dr. M. Atoillah Isfandi, dr., M.Kes. an epidemiologist at Faculty of Public Health (FKM) Universitas Airlangga (UNAIR), the record for the addition of daily confirmed cases should be watched out for, but it is not a major marker for the peak of a pandemic in Indonesia.

UNAIR epidemiologist Dr. M. Atoillah Isfandi, dr., M.Kes. (Photo: By courtesy)

It happens because the data or accumulation of Indonesian daily cases is not real time and less valid. The daily reports announced should be the cases reported and add up on that day. Meanwhile in Indonesia, the data collected follows the flow of regional reports, where the mechanisms are often different from one another.

The Vice Dean II of FKM UNAIR explained that East Java itself often experiences data delay which disturbs the accumulation of national data. The data collected is often in the form of ‘installments’ which are not paid up every day. “There are many reasons, such as to make it look stable. But it will be very detrimental in decision making. It must be remembered that the right decision comes from the right and valid data, “he explained in National Scientific Study of Faculty of Veterinary Medicine UNAIR on Sunday, November 29, 2020.

Furthermore, differences in data between regions and the central often occur due to debates on the origin of positive cases. This generally occurs when a positive patient has different domiciles, areas of origin, or places of care. “That’s why sometimes it is difficult to determine which area the case will go to. This also has the potential for overlapping data between regions and ultimately disrupting the accumulation of central data, “he explained.

Therefore, Dr Atoillah believes that even though the data showed the highest cases ever recorded, it cannot be used as a reference when the peak of the pandemic will occur in Indonesia. Because besides it is a non-realtime data, the data reported on a certain day could be a component that was checked out last month but was only reported on that day.

However, although it cannot be used as a reference, it must be admitted that there has been an increase in confirmed cases, especially after the schedule of collective leave in early November. Following the timeline, Dr. Atoillah sees that the holiday agenda or weekend schedule is likely to be followed by an increase in cases.

“This fact is also supported by the large number of virus transmissions that occur through family or relatives. Therefore, vacation schedules and family gatherings still have great potential to increase the number of new cases, “he added.

So in response to the schedule of year-end holidays and the simultaneous regional elections that will be held soon, Dr. Atoillah reminded the government and society to be able to act wisely. “The pandemic will quickly end in disciplined countries or regions, such as Australia, New Zealand or China. Therefore, if you want the case to slow down immediately, the system and policies must be organized with a high level of discipline, “he concluded.

Author: Intang Arifia

Editor: Khefti Al Mawalia

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Media komunikasi dan informasi seputar kampus Universitas Airlangga (Unair).

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