UNAIR NEWS – Large Scale Social Distancing (PSBB) in Surabaya City, Sidoarjo Regency, and Gresik Regency is in its 14th day. However, 14 days of PSBB did not seem to suppress the Covid-19 cases.
Universitas Airlangga (UNAIR) epidemiologist, Dr. Windhu Purnomo, dr., MS. said that PSBB duration should be extended 14 more days because according to him, the transmission and incubation period for coronavirus patients or Covid-19 tends to vary, from 14 to 25 days.
“Based on the experience of several countries written some international journals, actual transmission does not only occur during the incubation period, but also after symptoms appear,” explained Windhu, Saturday, May 9, 2020.
The epidemiological pattern of Covid-19 from the natural course of the disease and the infected patient showed that the more severe the symptoms, the longer the transmission period and even longer from the incubation period.
Windhu explained, 30 percent of people without symptoms (OTG) have a transmission period of up to 14 days. Whereas in patients with mild symptoms, about 55 percent of them have a transmission period of up to 21 days. Then as many as 15 percent of coronavirus confirmed cases with severe and critical symptoms have a 25-day transmission period.
Windhu continued, the so-called confirmed positive patients, not only were confirmed by PCR tests, but also who have not been detected and spread the disease in the community.
“So if PSBB is only done 14 days and then stopped, then what happens to 55 percent of patients with mild symptoms who can still transmit the disease. It must be rounded up at least until 28th day so the next wave of transmission does not appear, “explained the lecturer of UNAIR Faculty of Public Health (FKM).
If it is not extended, Windhu is worried that a new wave of infection will emerge. He said, the first 14 days were only for evaluation or milestone.
According to Windhu, if the curve of new cases confirmed and cases of death is still high, then the PSBB extension must be done. Furthermore, after the 28th day when the daily case and mortality curve decreases, the PSBB can be revoked.
“It does not mean when the curve is stable or tends to decrease before the 28th day, we can stop the PSBB. It is false sign because transmission is still ongoing in the community, “he said.
If the suggestion is enacted, Windhu urged the entire community to be disciplined and obey PSBB regulations. Do not leave the house if there is no urgent need, keep a safe distance, wear masks and other health protocols.
“Hopefully, PSBB will be extended and this time conducted seriously. It can be effective if the community is united,” he hoped.
Meanwhile, as of Saturday morning, May 9, 2020, the East Java Provincial Government cannot guarantee for the extension. However, based on East Java Covid-19 Curative Task Force Team showed that transmission rate in the three regions was not decreasing. (*)
Author: Erika Eight Novanty
Editor : Binti Quryatul Masruroh
