UNAIR NEWS – The democratic party to elect the head of the region will take place simultaneously in various regions in Indonesia. East Java Province is no exception. The people of East Java will choose the governor to lead the province which has the second largest votes in Indonesia for the next five years.
To welcome the five-year agenda, the Department of Strategic Studies of Student Executive Board (BEM), Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Universitas Airlangga held a public discussion entitled “Reviewing Electability and Voting Behavior at East Java Gubernatorial Election 2018” on Thursday, March 15.
The event which was held in Fadjar Notonegoro Hall was attended by hundreds of students. Not only from FEB UNAIR residents, but also attended by students from other faculties. The speakers presented in the event were Yohan Wahyu (Researcher from Kompas Research and Development), Fahrul Muzaqqi (Lecturer of Political Science UNAIR), and Novri Susan (Lecturer of Sociology UNAIR).
As the first speaker at the event, Yohan Wahyu gave explanation about the survey conducted by Kompas from 19 February to 4 March 2018 for pairs of Governor candidate of East Java.
“From the results of our survey, the electability of Khofifah Indar Parawansa-Emil Dardak was 44.5 percent and Saifullah Yusuf (Gus Ipul) -Puti Guntur Soekarno was 44 percent while the undecided voters were 11.5 percent,” said the alumnus of Sociology UNAIR.
From these electability results, Yohan added that the two pairs are equal. Because of the electibility difference was only 0.5 percent with the sampling error of 3.46 percent.
“The conclusion is that these two pairs still have equal chance because the difference is still under sampling error,” he said.
Meanwhile, Fahrul Muzaqqi explained about the historical development of voting behavior study, Indonesia has three voting behavior studies. The first is a psychological approach whereby a person chooses on the basis of party ideology. Then the sociology approach, where the choice is based on environmental considerations surrounding or social. The third is a rational approach, based on the program’s offer and the track record of the candidates.
“Today the Indonesian people are no longer choosing candidate pairs by looking at the ideology of their party. But they look at the programs offered as well as track record of the candidate pairs. That way, candidate pairs have the challenge how to personally appeal to the people of East Java, “he said.
Meanwhile, Novri Susan commented on the number of samples taken by Kompas. According to him, the number of 800 respondents taken from Kompas is less to describe the entire community of East Java. On the other hand Novri also suggested Kompas to survey not only closed electability but also open electability.
At the end, Novri said voters in East Java have very open behavior. People can choose anyone or switch options quickly before the election. Regardless of ideology, organization or anything else. To date, the electability of both pairs won by Khofifah. But in readiness, Gus Ipul has more readiness to make some programs needed by East Java.
“So the actual battle of these two candidates is from how they can offer programs attracting the people of East Java,” he concluded.
Author: M. Najib Rahman
Editor: Nuri Hermawan